Title: Have We Run Out of Oil Yet? Oil Peaking Analysis from an Optimist's Perspective
Publication Number:
Publication Date: 12/2005
Publication Type: Report/Publication
Contact: Chris Nichols
Program/Technology: Oil & Natural Gas
Author: Charles J. Drummond (NETL)
David L. Greene (ORNL)
Janet L. Hopson (ORNL)
Jia Li (ORNL)

This study addresses concerns on the peaking of conventional oil production. These issues are explored using a model combining alternative world energy scenarios with an accounting of resource depletion and a market-based simulation of transition to unconventional oil resources. The model assesses the timing and rate of transition from conventional to unconventional oil resources. Results indicate a high probability of peaking or constrained conventional oil production before 2025.

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